IMS Forecasts 12%-15% Growth for Global Cancer Markets Over the Next Several Years
Today, IMS Health released their predictions for the global oncology industry. According to the forecast, global sales of cancer drugs will grow 12%-15% and reach $75 to $80 billion by 2012, nearly doubling the forecasted growth rate of the global pharmaceutical market (6.4% in 2007). Twelve to fifteen percent growth for the next several years doesn’t jive with the constraints in oncology markets that our industry feels today. There has been remarkable expansion over the last few years (the AWP years?), and in spite of the predicted 12%-15% growth, this industry feels like it is contracting not expanding.
Go west, east, or south of the US. According to IMS, this growth will be driven by the increasing number of cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in Europe, Japan, and North America. Also evidenced is the fact that more patients in emerging markets such as China, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, India, Turkey, and Russia are getting access to up-to-date targeted therapies. Maybe this explains my instincts. The constraints I feel are real, and the growth that IMS is referring to is coming from ex-US markets.
IMS identifies the following as key dynamics that are influencing the double-digit growth of cancer products through 2012:
• Financial constraints of payers in major markets are leading to increased rigor for selecting targeted therapies – I see, major markets must mean the US. Now this is making sense.
• Improved screening, diagnosis, and access to modern medicines in developing countries – that’s real progress, access being the key in my opinion. Keep it coming.
• New products and combination therapies – of course there is still the tremendous amount of investment and effort to develop new products, some of which may actually make it to market.
• Growth rates for the top markets decrease – finally somebody said it. I knew it didn’t feel like a 12% growth rate here in the US.
Over the next five years, IMS is predicting in its annual forecast that growth will level out due to
• Tapering of current blockbusters - read: Avastin, Herceptin, Gleevec, etc.
• Fewer newer blockbuster medicines - predictive biomarkers may have something to do with this.
• Loss of exclusivity of four oncology products that have annual sales of over $1 billion - inevitable, but let’s get the lawyers on the phone.
IMS also predicts that future growth will be bolstered by the introduction of 25 to 30 new chemical entities between 2008 and 2012. These new entities will help sustain the trend of the expanding patient population being treated with targeted therapies. While many of these new therapies will target the most prevalent tumor types, namely breast and NSCLC, several will focus on late-stage prostate and pancreatic cancers as well as melanoma.
A strong finish. Twenty-five new chemical entities over a five-year period would be excellent progress. So far through ’08 we’ve had two new oncology approvals: Levoleucovorin (not sure if this counts) and Treanda. We’ve got a lot of work to do to get those 25 NCEs on the market, and contributing to predicted growth, by 2012.
Reports like this provoke industry dialogue both pessimistic and optimistic. What does this report invoke in you? In spite of feelings of contraction, the IMS report indicates it is a healthy industry, and the incremental gains found at each ASCO meeting are meaningful for patients, providers, payers, and industry.
Go west, east, or south of the US. According to IMS, this growth will be driven by the increasing number of cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in Europe, Japan, and North America. Also evidenced is the fact that more patients in emerging markets such as China, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, India, Turkey, and Russia are getting access to up-to-date targeted therapies. Maybe this explains my instincts. The constraints I feel are real, and the growth that IMS is referring to is coming from ex-US markets.
IMS identifies the following as key dynamics that are influencing the double-digit growth of cancer products through 2012:
• Financial constraints of payers in major markets are leading to increased rigor for selecting targeted therapies – I see, major markets must mean the US. Now this is making sense.
• Improved screening, diagnosis, and access to modern medicines in developing countries – that’s real progress, access being the key in my opinion. Keep it coming.
• New products and combination therapies – of course there is still the tremendous amount of investment and effort to develop new products, some of which may actually make it to market.
• Growth rates for the top markets decrease – finally somebody said it. I knew it didn’t feel like a 12% growth rate here in the US.
Over the next five years, IMS is predicting in its annual forecast that growth will level out due to
• Tapering of current blockbusters - read: Avastin, Herceptin, Gleevec, etc.
• Fewer newer blockbuster medicines - predictive biomarkers may have something to do with this.
• Loss of exclusivity of four oncology products that have annual sales of over $1 billion - inevitable, but let’s get the lawyers on the phone.
IMS also predicts that future growth will be bolstered by the introduction of 25 to 30 new chemical entities between 2008 and 2012. These new entities will help sustain the trend of the expanding patient population being treated with targeted therapies. While many of these new therapies will target the most prevalent tumor types, namely breast and NSCLC, several will focus on late-stage prostate and pancreatic cancers as well as melanoma.
A strong finish. Twenty-five new chemical entities over a five-year period would be excellent progress. So far through ’08 we’ve had two new oncology approvals: Levoleucovorin (not sure if this counts) and Treanda. We’ve got a lot of work to do to get those 25 NCEs on the market, and contributing to predicted growth, by 2012.
Reports like this provoke industry dialogue both pessimistic and optimistic. What does this report invoke in you? In spite of feelings of contraction, the IMS report indicates it is a healthy industry, and the incremental gains found at each ASCO meeting are meaningful for patients, providers, payers, and industry.
posted by Don Sharpe - www.oncbiz.com at
11:34 AM
1 Comments:
Their forecast seems to ignore (or assumes it won't happen) biosimilars coming into the market in EU and US. EU is near that tipping point already and the November elections could accelerate the momentum in the US.
Don Stark
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